Fig. 3
Probability of nest success for Arctic- and subarctic-breeding Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) from different wintering sites. The probability of nest success was estimated based on incubation periods derived from light-level geolocators (n = 46). Nest success was estimated as daily nest survival probability24, based on an average incubation period of 24 days. Nest success was estimated separately for all wintering sites in the northern half of the non-breeding range, including Izembek Lagoon, and sites in Oregon and Washington (Izembek/OR/WA), and for the southern half of the nonbreeding range including central California and Baja California, Mexico (Central CA/Mexico). Other wintering sites in Table 1 were not included because no nesting data were available for brant associated with those wintering sites. Brant were tagged with geolocators at a subarctic breeding site (Tutakoke River, Yukon Kuskokwim Delta National Wildlife Refuge; 61.3° N, 165.6° W) and an Arctic breeding site (Colville River Delta; 70.42° N, 150.38° W) in Alaska, USA