Fig. 2

Transition probabilities for Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) from breeding to wintering sites. Error bars around mean probability points are the 95% credible intervals. Transition probabilities represent the relative probability of movement between a breeding and a wintering site and sum to one across all possible wintering sites for each breeding site. Transition probabilities were estimated based on location estimates derived from light-level geolocators (n = 63). Brant were tagged with geolocators at a subarctic breeding site (Tutakoke River, Yukon Kuskokwim Delta National Wildlife Refuge; 61.3° N, 165.6° W) and an Arctic breeding site (Colville River Delta; 70.42° N, 150.38° W) in Alaska, USA. Wintering site locations are abbreviated as Izembek = Izembek National Wildlife Refuge, WA = Washington, BC = British Columbia, CA = California, Mexico = Baja California, Mexico