Fig. 3

External drivers of offshore vagrancy. Predicted offshore vagrancy probability response curves and 95% confidence intervals are shown under the studied range of each predictor in the best model (a–c). Binned frequencies of the raw data are included as points with standard deviation bars to show model fit. Predicted level of vagrancy in spring and fall are shown with separate curves and binned frequencies are separated by season for the interaction with season and v-wind (c). The model was built from subsampled data to ensure model fit, so all observation frequency values are rescaled to match the probabilities of the full dataset. The effect size of each predictor in the best model is shown with a caterpillar plot (D). On-land observation frequency (land obs freq), season, and the interaction between v-wind and season had large effect sizes. Solar activity (Ra) and v-wind had relatively small effect sizes. The model averaged effects sizes are similar to the best model (E)